Midnight, September 30, 2025… that’s the deadline.
And deadline for what?
Well, if you haven’t caught wind, Congress needs to reach a deal on funding before the fiscal year ends. If they don’t, the government starts shutting down on Wednesday, October 1.
Now, depending on who you ask, this is either a serious problem that needs to be resolved quickly… or just more Washington noise. After all, we’ve done this same song and dance before.
But I understand why it’s scaring a lot of people. And I’ve seen that fear in the emails that hit my inbox this week.
So, while I can’t predict what will happen this time (no one can), let’s talk about the real possibility of a government shutdown – and what that could mean for the markets…
Q: Tom, my concern isn’t so much whether members of Congress get paid or not, but if they shut down while they work things out, what will that do to the markets?
Good question—and I like how you worked that comment in about who gets paid.
Here’s what history tells us: The markets have generally shrugged off government shutdowns.
In fact, during past shutdowns, the S&P 500 has often traded flat or even higher while Congress was closed.
Now, that doesn’t mean there’s never an impact… In the short term, you could see some added volatility (especially if the shutdown drags on longer than expected). But in the long term, shutdowns on their own usually aren’t disruptive unless they’re paired with broader economic stressors.
In other words, Washington deadlines might rattle the headlines, but they rarely derail the market’s bigger trend.
And ultimately, whether or not it happens and crashes the markets, we’ll be prepared.
Q: Tom, do you make your options trading decisions based on upcoming economic reports?
This is another great question – and one that really comes down to the time frame.
Some traders use economic reports to time 0DTE options. These are options contracts that expire the very same day they’re traded (hence “zero days to expiration” – or 0DTE).
The idea is simple: if the underlying security makes a big enough move after a report, the short-lived option can move quickly in your favor. That’s why some traders look to reports like Consumer Price Index (CPI), Producer Price Index (PPI), or Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index to play intraday moves.
The most common vehicle for this approach is options on the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) since it’s the most liquid. You’ll also see traders use Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) or SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust (DIA).
But here’s the thing: this is pure day trading. And that’s not where I focus my efforts.
I’m not in the business of rolling the dice on same-day expirations. Instead, I use my systems to identify repeatable patterns and setups with higher probabilities—where I can plan my entry, exit, and targets in advance.
So, while I always keep an eye on the big economic reports, I don’t trade them the way 0DTE traders do.
That’s it for today. I’ll be back Monday, when we’ll start talking about how to protect yourself and profit from a government shutdown.
Until then, get some rest, unplug—and enjoy your weekend!
Tom Gentile
America’s Pattern Trader
