Dear reader,
It’s ugly out there.
Right now, the Dow is down around 2.75%. The Nasdaq is down 3.20%. So is the Russell. Gold and oil are in the red. Bitcoin is having its worst week since FTX collapsed.
The same is true down here in Florida at the unofficial Gulfport HQ, courtesy of Tropical Storm Debby.
The road into Gulfport HQ has been closed due to flooding. I can’t even get to the building where I record my weekly Five Points video!
So the markets aren’t the only thing underwater right now…
But listen… just like a tropical storm in Florida in August… this is completely normal.
Seasonal volatility is starting to creep in- and the Money Calendar saw this coming a mile away…
We’ve been preparing for this for weeks. I told you at the end of June that the seasonal bullishness for stocks would run its course sometime in mid-July.
Well, as it turns out, July 16 was the day the S&P 500 reached its all-time high of 5667.56 – and since then it has trailed off significantly.
July is typically a profitable month for traders – but not in 2024…
In fact, it was the worst performing July since 2014 – an entire decade.
Last week, I said that while volatility was elevated, and contributing to the sluggishness in stocks, it wasn’t high enough to worry about. Back then, the VIX was sitting around 17. High enough to add some much-needed juice to our trades, but not high enough to pique my interest.
In fact, I believe I said that things don’t get interesting until the VIX goes over 30.
This morning before market open, the VIX spiked above 65. Currently, we’re sitting around 34 and change.
I’d call that interesting.
Now, I want to let the ugliness subside – both in the markets and here in Florida – and see how we open tomorrow before taking a look at the charts and giving you my full analysis.
Meantime, if you want to brush up on my Five Points of the Market, I’ve added a handy guide to your special reports.
Just click below to check it out now.
I’ll be back with you tomorrow.
Good trading,
Tom Gentile
America’s Pattern Trader