22,000. That’s it.
Only 22,000 jobs were added in August, way below the 75,000 to 80,000 economists were expecting. Unemployment ticked up to 4.3%—the highest level since 2021. And job cuts surged to nearly 86,000, marking the worst August since the pandemic.
To say this was a disappointment would be a major understatement. And the numbers tell the story…
The markets started out flat, but selling picked up as the report sank in, knocking the Dow down about 200 points at the time of writing.
What does it all mean? well, the weak report has traders betting even harder on a Fed rate cut at its next meeting on September 17.
And that leads right into a question I got in the mailbag that I’m sure is on a lot of people’s minds…
Q: Tom, I just saw on the news that the August jobs report is really bad… Does this mean we’re already in a recession?
The mainstream news networks have done a great job whipping up recession (even Great Depression) fears. But we haven’t gotten the official word that we’re in one… at least, not yet.
Economists are still divided, with some saying we’re in a “low hires, low fires” phase—while others warn of heightened recession risks if jobs losses continue to accelerate. Then, there’s the other group of folks who have been warning of an impending recession for the past two decades. Could they be right this time? Sure! Even a broken clock is right twice a day after all.
Here’s the thing to remember, though: there’s a path to profits in even the scariest conditions. You just need to know where to look.
I’ve spent over three decades developing and refining an entire suite of software and scans that I can use to find hidden, profitable patterns in the market—whether it’s up, down, or sideways.
And one strategy in particular is UNDEFEATED in 2025. Click here to find out what it is – and how to use it.
Q: Tom, if I have both a stock trade and an option trade on the same ticker—do I exit them at the same time?
I’m glad you asked because this is a common situation that traders find themselves in.
Let’s say that one stock you like has a bullish pattern that you found using the Money Calendar… and you decided to buy the stock outright AND open a long call option trade on that same stock as well.
But just because the pattern ends on a specific date doesn’t mean that your trades will, too. You’d have to look at each position individually and manage your profit goals for both. If the Money Calendar data shows an average profit of 5.7% over the past 10 years on the stock, then I’d target a 5% return on investment (ROI) on that stock position.
At the same time, that long call position might be less dependent on the stock’s move. There in instances when implied volatility (IV) can drive an option’s price (or premium) higher—and faster—than the stock itself.
In this example, you could close half of your call position (as long as bought more than 1 contract) for a 50% ROI… and then the OTHER half of that same position for a 100% RO—before the stock even moved 5.7%.
So, while you could wait until the pattern’s end date to exit both of these positions, you could be robbing yourself of bigger, faster profits in the process. That’s why you have to evaluate your goals for each strategy you use and manage those trades accordingly.
Here’s how I like to look at it:
- For stocks, I aim for the historical average move. Going back to our example above, say you’re looking at a 10-year average profit of 5.7%… If I bought the stock at $100, I’d target $105.70 as my first profit goal.
- For options, it’s different. Sometimes the option can hit a 50% gain thanks to implied volatility or the Greeks, as we discussed—BEFORE the stock ever makes its full 5.7% move. In that case, I’ll often sell-to-close half of my position (again, you need at least two contracts to do so) for a 50% profit and let the rest ride toward 100%.
- If the stock does hit its 5.7% move, that’s usually my signal to lock in the stock profits and strongly consider closing the option position—even if it hasn’t reached my ideal ROI.
Great question!
Q: Tom, what’s the best way to review my trading results, and know if I’m on track?
This is another good question – and perfect timing as wrap up Q3! n—because the end of Q3 is the perfect checkpoint.
Remember, I’m not a broker or financial advisor, so I can’t give you any personalized advice. But these are the four steps I’d take:
1. Clarify your goals.
Are you trading for consistent income, aggressive growth, or hedging? Success looks different for each.
2. Check the following numbers:
- Win Rate: How often are your trades profitable?
- Profit Factor: Total profits ÷ total losses. Anything above 1 means you’re net profitable.
- Average Profit vs. Loss: If your wins are 2–3x your losses, you don’t need a super-high win rate to succeed.
- Max Drawdown: Biggest peak-to-trough loss in your account. If your stops are too wide, tighten them up.
- Return on Investment: How efficiently are you using your capital?
3. Review the “softer” factors.
- Are your trades aligned with your goals?
- Are you adapting to different market conditions?
- Are you managing risk with stops, sizing, and diversification?
- Most importantly—are you learning from past mistakes
4. Build better habits.
- Back test new ideas before risking real money.
- Paper trade when testing strategies.
- Review results monthly or quarterly—not just after big wins/losses.
- Keep a spreadsheet to track what matters most to you.
And always remember… success in options trading isn’t just about the dollars. It’s about consistency, discipline, and growth.
By combining hard numbers with honest reflection, you’ll see where you’re thriving, where you need to adjust, and how to position yourself for a strong finish to the year.
Have a great weekend!
Tom Gentile
America’s Pattern Trader
