It’s been a busy week here at Patterns & Profits!
On Monday, we talked about why Bitcoin (BTC) could hit $150,000 in as little as 120 days…
Then, by Wednesday, we had to shift focus to the two things Apple DIDN’T reveal during it’s “Awe-Dropping” Fall 2025 event.
And now, as we close out the week, something unusual is happening…
We’re in one of those rare stretches where the market is actually breaking the “rules.”
Typically, risk-on assets (like growth stocks and junk bonds) move opposite of risk-off assets (like gold and Treasuries). But right now, they’re BOTH showing strength at the same exact time.
That doesn’t happen often—which is why it’s worth paying attention to.
And it also brings me to the subscriber question of the week…
Q: Tom, I keep hearing the terms “Risk-On” and “Risk-Off.” What do they actually mean—and why does it matter that both are rising right now?
Good questions!
Here’s the breakdown:
- Risk-On assets are favored when investors feel confident about the economy and are willing to take on more risk for potentially higher returns.
Examples include growth stocks, cyclical sectors like tech or consumer discretionary, high-yield bonds (junk bonds), and commodities like oil or industrial metals.
- Risk-Off assets are preferred in times of uncertainty, economic slowdown, or geopolitical tension—when capital preservation becomes the priority.
Those examples include gold and precious metals, U.S. Treasuries, and cash equivalents.
Now, normally, these two groups trade in opposite directions. But we’ve entered a rare moment where they’re both trending higher.
Why?
Often, this happens when central banks inject liquidity into the system… or when investors are uncertain and diversify across asset classes.
And right now, the Fed decision on September 17 is front and center. There’s already a high expectation of a rate cut (possibly as much as 50 basis points). That’s a textbook example of adding liquidity—and likely why both camps are rallying at once.
So although it’s rare, it’s not unheard of. In fact, in the past 20 years there have been about 15 instances where stocks, bonds, and gold all climbed together over three-month periods.
What does this mean for traders?
Well, until that rate cut happens, there could still be a little more upside left in this move. And we’ll talk more about WHERE that upside potential is next week.
Until then, have a great weekend!
Tom Gentile
America’s Pattern Trader
